“Society pays dearly for all the experiments it could have conducted but didn’t. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, millions of crimes have been committed, and billions of dollars have been wasted because people have bulled ahead on their…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Mindware
Tagged with: cognition, confirmation bias, cost-benefit analysis, Daniel Kahneman, Dialecticism, Drunk Tank Pink, effort heuristic, emoji, endowment effect, fundamental attribution error, HiPPOs, ideomotor mimicry, illusory correlation, logic, loss aversion, Matthew Syed, Mindware, mulling, multiple regression analysis, Nautilus, representativeness heuristic, Richard E. Nisbett, Scared Straight, scientific method, spreading activation, status quo bias, sunk cost fallacy, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, Thinking Fast and Slow, Will Durant, words that work
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Freelance, ho!
As luck would have it, I’d scored my first freelance gig by doing nothing and then having a five minute conversation. But here’s the twist: this industry was completely new to me, and the nature of the project and subject…
Tagged with: analysis, consulting, freelancing, humility, positioning, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game
Posted in Careers, Everything
Posted in Careers, Everything
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
The Problem of Prognostication
“By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said ‘no war for ten years.’ Nine years later World War II had begun.” – Lin Wells I’m sure we’ve all…
Tagged with: adaptability, agility, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Lin Wells, Obliquity, prediction, Success and Luck, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, uncertainty
Posted in Leadership
Posted in Leadership
Book Report: The HEAD Game
“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than…
Tagged with: adversarial cooperation, analysis, analytics, charity proposition, CIA, critical thinking, Daryl Morey, decision advantage, decision-making, Deep Thinking, expertise, John Wooden, metrics, Philip Mudd, Superforecasting, The Black Swan, The HEAD Game, The Undoing Project
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management
The Scourge of Confirmation Bias
“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch…
Tagged with: Black Box Thinking, chemtrails, confirmation bias, Dan Gardner, Eric Ries, falsification, hypothesis, Matthew Syed, numbers, Paul Schoemaker, Philip E Tetlock, Philip Mudd, scientific method, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, The Lean Startup
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
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