“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: The HEAD Game
“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than…
Tagged with: adversarial cooperation, analysis, analytics, charity proposition, CIA, critical thinking, Daryl Morey, decision advantage, decision-making, Deep Thinking, expertise, John Wooden, metrics, Philip Mudd, Superforecasting, The Black Swan, The HEAD Game, The Undoing Project
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management
Book Report: Deep Thinking
“Our attitude matters, and not because we can stop the march of technological prowess even if we wanted to, but because our perspective on disruption affects how well prepared for it we will be. There is plenty of room between…
Tagged with: AlphaGo, Amos Tversky, artificial intelligence, automation, Bill Gates, Bounce, chess, competition, Dan Ariely, Daniel Kahneman, Data and Goliath, Deep Thinking, Der Speigel, disruption, expertise, Garry Kasparov, innovation, Larry Smith, Larry Tesler, machine learning, Mikhail Botvinnik, Moravec's Paradox, performance, philosophy, pragmatism, privacy, problem solving, Success and Luck, technology, The Pentagon's Brain, Vasily Smyslov, Weapons of Math Destruction, Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: I Am Zlatan Ibrahimovic
“I realized it had been tough. It had been hard. The person who was supposed to mean the most to me as a footballer had given me the cold shoulder completely, and that was worse than most stuff I’d been…
Tagged with: biography, David Lagercrantz, expertise, Fabio Capello, Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola, Ruth Urbom, Simon Kuper, Sotirios Kyrgiakos, Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Posted in Books, Everything, Soccer, Sports
Posted in Books, Everything, Soccer, Sports
Book Report: The Sports Gene
“The broad truth is that nature and nurture are so interlaced in any realm of athletic performance that the answer is always: it’s both. But that is not a satisfactory endpoint in science. Scientists must ask, ‘How, specifically, might nature…
Tagged with: Aaron Lennon, Charles Darwen, Chris Rock, Chrissie Wellington, David Epstein, Donald Dhomas, epigenetics, expertise, Gareth Bale, Jennie Finch, Jermain Defoe, Jesper L Andersen, Jose Reyes, Kalenjin, Paavo Nurmi, performance, Sian Beilock, sports science, The Sports Gene, Theo Walcott, Usain Bolt
Posted in Books, Math and Science, Sports
Posted in Books, Math and Science, Sports
Chris Hadfield’s advice
In a recent interview with CBC Radio, Commander Chris Hadfield gave his three secrets for becoming an astronaut: Keep your body in shape and eat well Challenge yourself with education, and push yourself to learn things you barely expect to…
Tagged with: circle of control, decision-making, excellence, expertise, space, success
Posted in Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Everything, Math and Science
Seven Tips to More Effective Public Speaking
Public speaking is among our (as a species) greatest fears (glossophobia, for you Balderdashers). As it turns out, standing up to yell and generally cause a scene wasn’t a great survival trait back when we weren’t the planet’s apex predator,…
Tagged with: Brent Stockman, expertise, influence, leadership, Lee Brooks, lessons, opportunities, presentation, public speaking, soccer, The Pitch
Posted in Leadership, Marketing
Posted in Leadership, Marketing
Time for a change?
“The immortals step out of their comfort zone in order to expand it.” – Lee Jenkins in SI Reading some basketball news the other day, I came across a remarkable story over at Sports Illustrated, Right Turn: There are makeovers,…
Tagged with: basketball, change, circle of control, excellence, expertise, NBA, sports
Posted in Leadership, Sports
Posted in Leadership, Sports
What’s more important to employers: excitement or experience?
Many a hiring manager has been forced to choose between two qualified (or, if he or she is lucky, outstanding) candidates, and sometimes the situation goes like this: Candidate A personifies excitement, and will attack the role with energy and…
Tagged with: excitement, experience, expertise, hiring, interviewing, interviews, passion, team-building
Posted in Careers, Everything, Management
Posted in Careers, Everything, Management
More Coaching Insights from the NFL
“Clean up the minor details! That’s how you get great! There are no little things. The little things are all big things.” – Bruce Arians A few days ago I wrote about a 35-minute video of Jason Garrett‘s opening training…
Tagged with: coaching, excellence, expertise, leadership, NFL
Posted in Everything, Leadership, Management
Posted in Everything, Leadership, Management
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