“Society pays dearly for all the experiments it could have conducted but didn’t. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, millions of crimes have been committed, and billions of dollars have been wasted because people have bulled ahead on their…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Mindware
Tagged with: cognition, confirmation bias, cost-benefit analysis, Daniel Kahneman, Dialecticism, Drunk Tank Pink, effort heuristic, emoji, endowment effect, fundamental attribution error, HiPPOs, ideomotor mimicry, illusory correlation, logic, loss aversion, Matthew Syed, Mindware, mulling, multiple regression analysis, Nautilus, representativeness heuristic, Richard E. Nisbett, Scared Straight, scientific method, spreading activation, status quo bias, sunk cost fallacy, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, Thinking Fast and Slow, Will Durant, words that work
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: The Only Rule Is It Has To Work
“This was the ugly part of the stats-vs.-tradition debate in baseball: Rather than a conversation about the best way to make baseball decisions, it had become an argument, in which it increasingly felt as if the purpose was to score…
Tagged with: analysis, analytics, availability heuristic, base rate fallacy, baseball, Ben Lindbergh, Bill James, clustering illusion, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, Dan Deeth, Dunning-Kruger effect, focalism, Kurt Russell, sabermetrics, Sam Miller, Sonoma Stompers, The Battered Bastards of Baseball, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work, The Tragically Hip, tradition
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management, Math and Science, Sports
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management, Math and Science, Sports
Podcast Thoughts: Masters of Scale
For those who don’t know, Masters of Scale is, “an original podcast hosted by LinkedIn Co-Founder and Greylock Partner Reid Hoffman showing how companies grow from zero to a gazillion. The series unfolds like a music-infused detective story as Hoffman tests his theories with famous founders. Masters of…
Tagged with: confirmation bias, Dave Caputo, hypothesis, luck, Masters of Scale, money, narrative fallacy, Reid Hoffman, scalability, scaling, survivor bias, theory
Posted in Everything, Management
Posted in Everything, Management
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
The Scourge of Confirmation Bias
“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch…
Tagged with: Black Box Thinking, chemtrails, confirmation bias, Dan Gardner, Eric Ries, falsification, hypothesis, Matthew Syed, numbers, Paul Schoemaker, Philip E Tetlock, Philip Mudd, scientific method, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, The Lean Startup
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Black Box Thinking
“And this is invariably how progress happens. It is an interplay between the practical and the theoretical, between top-down and bottom-up, between creativity and discipline, between the small picture and the big picture. The crucial point – and the one…
Tagged with: Abraham Wald, Antifragile, Black Box Thinking, Bounce, Chesley Sullenberger, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Daniel Kahneman, denial, Eleanor Roosevelt, Eric Ries, Esther Duflo, failure, feedback, flow, Francis Bacon, James Dyson, Jim Collins, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Popper, marginal gains, Matthew Syed, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, mitigated language, narrative falacy, pre-mortem, Scared Straight, Success and Luck, The Lean Startup, Unilever, When Prophecy Fails
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Adaptability: A Critical Quality of Great Leaders
“The single biggest problem — the fatal flaw in choosing presidents, school board leaders, or football coaches — is that we believe we can predict the future rather than looking for a leader who can quickly adapt to whatever the…
Tagged with: confirmation bias, hiring, leadership, lessons, Obliquity, randomness
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
| How Your Brand Can S… on The Third Age of Marketin… | |
| Book Review: Brainia… on Book Report: Brainiac | |
 | Lee Brooks on Awkward Meetings – Volume… |
 | Matt Duench on Awkward Meetings – Volume… |
| Book Report: Zone to… on Doomed from Inception: The Hor… |
Leadership, Marketing...and Everything 