“Society pays dearly for all the experiments it could have conducted but didn’t. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, millions of crimes have been committed, and billions of dollars have been wasted because people have bulled ahead on their…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Mindware
Tagged with: cognition, confirmation bias, cost-benefit analysis, Daniel Kahneman, Dialecticism, Drunk Tank Pink, effort heuristic, emoji, endowment effect, fundamental attribution error, HiPPOs, ideomotor mimicry, illusory correlation, logic, loss aversion, Matthew Syed, Mindware, mulling, multiple regression analysis, Nautilus, representativeness heuristic, Richard E. Nisbett, Scared Straight, scientific method, spreading activation, status quo bias, sunk cost fallacy, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, Thinking Fast and Slow, Will Durant, words that work
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Deep Thinking
“Our attitude matters, and not because we can stop the march of technological prowess even if we wanted to, but because our perspective on disruption affects how well prepared for it we will be. There is plenty of room between…
Tagged with: AlphaGo, Amos Tversky, artificial intelligence, automation, Bill Gates, Bounce, chess, competition, Dan Ariely, Daniel Kahneman, Data and Goliath, Deep Thinking, Der Speigel, disruption, expertise, Garry Kasparov, innovation, Larry Smith, Larry Tesler, machine learning, Mikhail Botvinnik, Moravec's Paradox, performance, philosophy, pragmatism, privacy, problem solving, Success and Luck, technology, The Pentagon's Brain, Vasily Smyslov, Weapons of Math Destruction, Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: Black Box Thinking
“And this is invariably how progress happens. It is an interplay between the practical and the theoretical, between top-down and bottom-up, between creativity and discipline, between the small picture and the big picture. The crucial point – and the one…
Tagged with: Abraham Wald, Antifragile, Black Box Thinking, Bounce, Chesley Sullenberger, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Daniel Kahneman, denial, Eleanor Roosevelt, Eric Ries, Esther Duflo, failure, feedback, flow, Francis Bacon, James Dyson, Jim Collins, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Popper, marginal gains, Matthew Syed, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, mitigated language, narrative falacy, pre-mortem, Scared Straight, Success and Luck, The Lean Startup, Unilever, When Prophecy Fails
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Book Report: What Should We Be Worried About
“In all sorts of complex systems, this is the general trend: Increasing the coupling between the parts seems harmless enough at first. But then, abruptly, when the coupling crosses a critical value everything changes. The exact nature of the altered state…
Tagged with: Adam Alter, Alison Gopnik, Amanda Gefter, Amos Tversky, Andrian Kreye, Antony Garret Lisi, Brian Eno, Brian Knutson, Carlo Rovelli, Dan Sperber, Daniel Kahneman, David Bodanis, Douglas T. Kenrick, Eric R. Weinstein, Evgeny Morozov, Haim Harari, James J. O'Donnell, Karl Sabbagh, Kirsten Bomblies, Leo M. Chalupa, Margaret Levi, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Neil Gershenfeld, Paul Saffo, Peter Schwartz, Randolph Nesse, Roger Highfeld, Satyajit Das, Stephon H. Alexander, Steven Pinker, Steven Strogatz, Tania Lombrozo, Tim O'Reilly, Timo Hannay, Timothy Taylor, worries
Posted in Books, Everything, Finance, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Finance, Math and Science
Don’t overlook the quietly effective
“The best defenders are those who never tackle.” – Chris Anderson and David Sally, in The Numbers Game In 2001, Sir Alex Ferguson sold the Dutch international defender Jaap Stam to Lazio based in part on match data that showed Stam…
Tagged with: absence, Anne Treisman, Bobby Fischer, Chris Anderson, cognitive illusion, Curious George, Daniel Kahneman, David Sally, Eliot Hearst, Jaap Stam, Janet Souther, performance evaluations, presence, self-awareness, self-evaluation, Sir Alex Ferguson, The Numbers Game
Posted in Leadership, Management, Soccer
Posted in Leadership, Management, Soccer
Book Report: The Numbers Game
“It is easy…to think of soccer as a game of superstars. They provide the glamour, the genius, the moments of inspiration. They sell the shirts and fill the seats. But they do not decide who wins games and who wins…
Tagged with: analytics, Andrew Friedman, Bill James, Bob Paisley, Boris Groysberg, Chris Anderson, conjunctive tasks, Daniel Kahneman, David Sally, Einstein, failure, Gabriele Marcotti, Gianluca Vialli, John Wooden, Kohler effect, Louis Van Gaal, Luca Toni, Malcolm Gladwell, Nathan Milstein, O-Ring Theory, Pep Guardiola, regression to the mean, Sepp Herberger, statistics, strongest-link, Tampa Bay Rays, team dynamics, The Extra 2%, The Numbers Game, Thomas Huxley, weakest-link, Zidane Clustering Theorem
Posted in Books, Management, Math and Science, Soccer, Sports
Posted in Books, Management, Math and Science, Soccer, Sports
Book Report: The Improbability Principle
“The Improbability Principle is not a single equation, such as Einstein’s famous E = mc², but a collection of strands which intertwine, braiding together and amplifying each other, to form a rope connecting events, incidents, and outcomes. The main strands…
Tagged with: Amos Tversky, birthday problem, Carl Sagan, Cauchy distribution, coincidences, Daniel Kahneman, David J Hand, Edward Lorenz, Guassian distribution, John Maynard Keynes, Leonard Mlodinow, Marshall McLuhan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, probabilities, The Big Bang Theory, The Black Swan, The Drunkard's Walk, The Improbability Principle
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
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