“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
The Meeting for (Re)Solution
“When you see problem-solving as part of the learning cycle, you transform the (re)solution meeting from a chore to an essential, energizing aspect of your business.” – David Pearl In The Reasons Why People Meet, I introduced seven different types of…
Tagged with: David Pearl, Einstein, meetings, problem solving, problems, Theodore Rubin, Will There Be Donuts?
Posted in Leadership, Management
Posted in Leadership, Management
Book Report: The Numbers Game
“It is easy…to think of soccer as a game of superstars. They provide the glamour, the genius, the moments of inspiration. They sell the shirts and fill the seats. But they do not decide who wins games and who wins…
Tagged with: analytics, Andrew Friedman, Bill James, Bob Paisley, Boris Groysberg, Chris Anderson, conjunctive tasks, Daniel Kahneman, David Sally, Einstein, failure, Gabriele Marcotti, Gianluca Vialli, John Wooden, Kohler effect, Louis Van Gaal, Luca Toni, Malcolm Gladwell, Nathan Milstein, O-Ring Theory, Pep Guardiola, regression to the mean, Sepp Herberger, statistics, strongest-link, Tampa Bay Rays, team dynamics, The Extra 2%, The Numbers Game, Thomas Huxley, weakest-link, Zidane Clustering Theorem
Posted in Books, Management, Math and Science, Soccer, Sports
Posted in Books, Management, Math and Science, Soccer, Sports
Book Report: Brilliant Blunders
“How could a man of such intellectual powers as Kelvin be so sure that he was right even when he was dead wrong? Like all humans, Kelvin still had to use the hardware between his ears – his brain –…
Tagged with: blunders, Darwin, denial, discovery, Einstein, Hoyle, Kelvin, lessons, mistakes, opportunities, passion, Pauling, pioneers, scientific method, selection bias
Posted in Books, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Math and Science
Coaching Insights from Jason Garrett of the Dallas Cowboys
“None of us need help to be mediocre.” – Jason Garrett The NFL season kicks off in just over a week, and one of my favourite sports sites has been providing a great window into the seldom-seen (in detail) world…
Tagged with: coaching, Einstein, leadership, NFL, respect, sports
Posted in Everything, Leadership, Management, Sports
Posted in Everything, Leadership, Management, Sports
Lessons in Leadership from Mark Cuban
Culture defines who you are and, to an extent, how you do. Culture is what keeps people from leaving your organization when times are tough. Culture is a collective characteristic. A team without a culture is, at best, no more…
Tagged with: basketball, culture, Einstein, Gandhi, leadership, lessons, NBA, sports, strategy
Posted in Leadership, Sports
Posted in Leadership, Sports
So you want to influence someone…
“Setting an example is not the main means of influencing another, it is the only means.” – Albert Einstein That Einstein fellow was a smart one. In addition to his Theory of Brownian Motion (which somewhat vaulted him into relevance),…
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